Some Thoughts on Taliban Activity

On Friday June 13, the Taliban executed a complex battleplan to free 400 of their captured breathern from the prison of Sarposa. They were completely succesful, and managed to free all the inmates, Taliban and otherwise.

To me this is the final indicator needed to solidify a picture of the Taliban that has been forming for some months now. It seems increasingly that they are turning into a Viet-Cong like organization: there is cannon fodder which are tier one troops, and form the militias and foreign suicide bombers; there are tier two troops, more trained, which stick to one province; and then there are tier three troops, which are well trained, and highly mobile. Previously, the Taliban didn't seem to have many trained, not to mention mobile, troops. But this seems to have changed, as this raid to free the prisoners was evidently conducted by such troops.

More important, however, is that this seems to be the final indicator necessary to show that the Taliban is not necessarily a loose gureilla organization, a fraternal brotherhood of insurgents, if you will. Rather, it is an organization with a defined command structure, which has strategic goals and objectives, and plans to use military troops to achieve them. In effect, it is quite troubling that this seems to offer the final piece of evidence (in my mind at least, for my gut agrees with me on this) that someone, somewhere, is directing grand strategy for the Taliban, and has created detailed plans to execute their goals, as well as create a detailed logistical structure to support operations. They are planning not tactically or operationally, but strategically, and they may even be coordinating to a certain extent with Al-Qaeda on a world-wide basis as well (Al-Qaeda has apparently been trying to step up attacks in Yemen and Saudi Arabia since January, when the uptick in Taliban activity first became noticeable).

So, allow me to put this in context. After the Taliban were forced out of the Afghanistan cities in 2001, their command structure was probably scattered and decimated. Taliban activity slowed. Then, in 2005/2006, it revived. By the spring of 2007, NATO forces were essentially in defensive mode, preparing for what they thought would be a massive spring offensive by the Taliban. I didn't believe this to be true: the Taliban were making it far too obvious for this to be their true goal. They had a charasmatic commander, Mullah Dadullah, who spent the months preceding springtime filling the airwaves with talk of the spring offensive, saying they were going to drive NATO from the country. I thought this was all too obvious, and was a ploy so the Taliban could shift more forces into Pakistan. I believe I was correct in this matter: while a spring offensive did occur, it was not what NATO had expected. It was far looser, more uncoordinated, and not nearly as threatening. The trained fighters were nowhere to be found. Throughout the summer, terrorist activity increased in Pakistan, culminating in the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December. Since the spring, Taliban activity has picked up, with increasingly complex operations being performed, and the Taliban acting increasingly as a military rather than terrorist/insurgent force. For example, while executing the raid to free the prisoners in the Sarposa prison, Taliban forces simultaneously moved to occupy and fortify several nearby villages.

This was a military operation, plain and simple. I think the Taliban has been training its elite forces by sending them on small raids after police checkpoints and stations, and has been training in executing large troop movements at night in Pakistan, as well as practicing them through raiding towns near the border. I think they are currently trying to flood Afghanistan with suicide bombers, to distract the government and the International Security Assistance Force and keep them off balance. I think they have been probing NATO and Afghan defenses, and have been executing small raids to assert their dominance and gain supplies, as well as training. I think they have nearly finished securing their base of operations areas, and have managed to gain dominance in those areas, making them the power villagers comply with. And I think they are gearing up for a very big offensive--a coordinated military offensive. Then, again, it might be they are just getting practice in Afghanistan for fighting in Pakistan. But I think their activity in Pakistan would be more noticeable if they were, and there hasn't been much recent news there. If my thoughts are correct, this may be the first time that sucicide bombers have been standardized as a unit to be used in a military engagement. Whatever the case, it seems that the Taliban will soon have the power to engage in operations on a scale not seen since the fall of 2001--and they will have the initiative.

-June 25